Arizona Cardinals Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) — 6:00 PM Eastern NBC

At Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay

Although the Cardinals have done their best impersonation of the New York Giants of last year, I once again see this Cinderella story coming to an unhappy ending if you are a Cardinal fan.  Despite being wrong on the Cards in their prior three games, I still feel they will not only lose, but also not cover due to their defense.  The Cardinal defense has been pretty bad all year long during the regular season, giving up over 28 points per game, over 330 yards per game and basically has been a huge liability as the Cards etched out a 9-7 record against a debatably easy schedule.  During the postseason the defense has morphed into a different unit thus far holding the very capable offenses of the Falcons, Vikings, & Eagles to 62 points in all (20.7 per game) and has a turnover ratio of +9 in the post season compared to a ratio of +/- zero during the regular season.  While I won’t be surprised to see this unit pull off another great game and make me wrong again, I see the odds of it being extremely low.

I have much more faith in the swarming Pitt D who ranked at the top of the NFL in almost every category (13.9 ppg, 237 yards allowed, etc.).  I do think Fitzgerald has a good game as he is on fire right now, but Warner’s game will be mixed with some good and bad plays as the Pittsburgh Steelers D handcuffs Warner by putting a lot of pressure on him.  I also think the Cardinals running game will give the Steelers no problems at all.

Big Ben might be the popular choice for MVP for many but I see Big Ben having a good but not great game, but instead the running game doing the most damage leaving Willie Parker and perhaps Troy Polumalu left to fight it out over MVP as I expect the Steeler D to make some plays as well.  I don’t expect a blow out but I never feel comfortable with an under (46.5) on a Super Bowl so I’m not touching that, but I do predict a 2 touchdown victory for the Steelers with a score of roughly:  Steelers 27, Cardinals 13

Even if the Steelers don’t cover, I will be happy with a Steeler victory as it is a well known fact to those in the stock market that a Steelers victory in the past has brought an average return of 25% for the year in the stock market.  While it might sound a little far fetched statistically it works out (see link below) and the market definitely could use a boost this year after what we just had last year.

http://news.prnewswire.com/ViewContent.aspx?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/01-28-2009/0004962079&EDATE=

NFC Championship Game

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 At Arizona Cardinals –  3:00 PM Eastern Fox

While the Cardinals have proven me wrong 2 weeks in a row I have a lot of  trouble seeing this 9-7 regular season team, who lost to the Eagles 48 to 20 on week13, making it to the big game.  While the Cards D has been great these last two games I see McNabb having more success than Delhomme last week who had a terrible game (5 picks).  I do see this game being much closer than the previous game but the Eagles defense will make sure that Kurt Warner is pressured and hit regularly, something the Panthers D did not do which is why Warner and Fitzgerald carved them up last week.  I also see Westbrook having another big game as last time they played Westbrook had a modest 130 total yards and 4 touchdowns.  I’m very tempted to run with the over but I do worry that Cardinals D have been playing well as of late and this might be a much lower scoring game than their previous meeting.

AFC Championship Game

Baltimore Ravens +6 At Pittsburgh Steelers — 6:30 PM Eastern CBS

This game sets up to be a great defensive battle as the Steelers D and Ravens D both rank on top of the league and both have a ton of momentum behind them and a ton of confidence.  Both teams should have a very hard time running the ball and both QB’s will have to try and limit any mistakes through the air as there’s a good chance we’ll have some more nasty weather at Heinz Field next week.  I do think the Steelers pull out a victory but like the Ravens chances to cover as I really don’t see any team having more than a touchdown lead this game and very likely this one comes down to a last minute field goal.  We might very likely see an almost exact repeat of week 15 when the Steelers beat the Ravens 13-9 in Baltimore when Big Ben & Santonio Holmes scored a last minute touchdown to put them over the top.

Baltimore Ravens (+3) At Tennesee Titans — Saturday 4:30 PM Eastern CBS

As much as I love the Titans running game (led by rookie Chris Johnson and usually finished in the endzone by Lendale White) which ranks near the top in the NFL with over 137 yards per game.  The Titans defense also has kept them in games all year giving up a stingy 14.6 points per game for 2nd best in the NFL.  Only problem I see with the Titans is weakness at quarterback as Kerry Collins whose 80.2 rating performance this year hasne’t been terrible but definitely will be tested as the Ravens load up against the run and dare Collins to try and beat them.  The Ravens D ranks right behind the Titans in points allowed (15.3) but has gotten better and better as this year has progressed and this sets up to be a nice defensive battle.  I also think the Ravens offense is a little more well rounded than the Titans despite a rook at QB but as we saw last week I expect Ray Lewis and Ed Reed to be making the biggest plays in this game.

Arizona Cardinals At Carolina Panthers (-9.5) — Saturday 8:15 PM Eastern Fox

Despite a surprise appearance made last week by the Cardinals defense I see the party ending pretty quickly for the Cards in what I hope to be a high scoring and exciting game tomorrow night.  The Cards 28th ranked defense definitely flexed their muscles last week at home to clip the Falcon’s wings but I don’t see Steve Smith and his 7th highest ranked offense i the NFL being slowed down at this game.  While the Cards do have some great weapons to counter the Panthers D has been overlooked greatly this year as they have quietly all year been pretty solid.  They aren’t the Titans or Ravens but this D is pretty solid ranking 12th in the leage giving up less than 3 touchdowns per game and should be able to do enough to let the Panthers offense win this game by at least ten points.

Philadelphia Eagles (+3) At New York Giants — Sunday 1:00 PM Eastern Fox

Despite how the Giants trounced my picks last year in the playoffs (I picked against them every game) I still don’t see the Giants as the juggernaut that the spread feels they are.  They are a solid team and this should be a great battle but I like the Eagles chances for the outright win, but especially a cover or push.  The Giants split the season series against the Eagles winning 36 to 31 in Philly, but losing 20 to 14 at home so this should be a close, hard fought game until the end.  I see both teams having very capable defenses and running games so I surmise this game will end up being Eli Manning versus Donovan McNabb.  Whoever has the better game will put his team over the top this Sunday.

San Diego Chargers At Pittsbugh Steelers (-6) – Sunday 4:45 PM Eastern CBS

Its hard for me to stay objective on this game as I don’t like Norv Turner and I hate Philip Rivers but I look at this good Chargers offense going up against the best defense in the NFL at home in some possible nasty weather.  Throw an injured and ineffective LT into the mix and I’m not too concerned about Big Ben’s struggles this year and also Mike Tomlin’s sometimes bad decision making.  I see the offense doing just enough to win this game by about a touchdown.  If they were not at home I’d probably go against them but I see this Steeler defense dominating the Chargers if we have some messy weather, but even in just normal cold weather I like their chances.

Definitely a great slate of games coming up as we only have eleven great games left before this NFL season is over (of course I don’t count the Pro-Bowl which is a joke).  Strangely I find myself liking all chalk this week (which is odd as I usually prefer Dogs) but the quality of wildcard teams this year may be the best we have ever seen when compared to the quality of division winners.  Amazingly the combined records of the 4 wildcards is 43-20-1 compared to 38-26 from the division winners without a bye combined.  I know it’ll never happen but I’d love the NFL to consider forcing division winners to qualify for something like 10 wins, and if not throw them into the wildcard bin.  As much as I don’t root for the Patriots, its really a shame they are sitting at home with an 11-5 record whereas the Chargers (8-8) and Cardinals (9-7) barely don’t have losing records.  The NFL still has a much better system than every other sport (except maybe for NCAA Basketball as March Madness is the greatest) so its not a big deal but definitely bugs me to see the best teams not in the hunt.

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) At Arizona Cardinals — Saturday January 3rd 4:30 PM Eastern

Despite the inexperience at QB and the deadly passing attack of the Cardinals I like Atlanta here because their defense is so much better than the Cards.  Throw in Michael Turner who I see as an elite runner, especially against weaker defenses this season, and I think this game could be a blow out if Warner and Fitzgerald aren’t on top of their games.

Indianapolis Colts (-1) At San Diego Chargers — Saturday January 3rd 8 PM Eastern

As good as the Chargers offense looked last night we have to remember they were facing the vaunted Broncos “defense” which was one of the most reliably bad units all year long (30th in the NFL).  I do see this game being the most exciting of the weekend as defense takes a back seat to a Peyton Manning/Philip Rivers shoot out.  I also think LT has a decent game, but in the end the Colts will take it down in dramatic fashion, hopefully thanks to another coaching blunder by one of my faves Norv Turner.

Baltimore Ravens (-3) At Miami Dolphins — Sunday January 4th 1 PM Eastern

First I have to give BIll Parcells major props as I thought he was insane going to Miami where I saw at least a few years of work to get them into a winning season let alone winning their division and getting a #3 seed in the AFC.  It was quite an amazing season but I fear it will end harshly for Fins fans as the Ravens D is probably the most dominating playing this weekend and the Ravens offense has slowly gotten better and better over the year.  I expect to see a lot from Parcells and his coaching staff as they pull out all the stops in the bag of tricks but defense, a strong running game, and a solid rookie QB not making many errors is a recipe for the Ravens turning the fins into tuna meat next Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) At Minnesota Vikings — Sunday January 4th 4:30 PM Eastern

Its very hard for me to pick a team I remember watching struggle in Cincy just a few weeks ago as they nearly lost to the lowly Bengals, but after seeing them demolish the Cowboys last week its hard to go against them.  While I do love Adrian Peterson and think he has a great game, I see the Eagles taking advantage of Tavaris Jackson and I also see Peterson fumbling the ball in an important game scenario.  While Peterson had a great year he has of late put the ball on the turf a few too many times and I think the real star that will show up this game will be #36 Brian Westbrook whose versatility combined with an aggresive Philly defense will take this game giving the Vikes the strong signal that they need to upgrade at QB in the off season (Won’t Michael Vick be out of prison by next season? Hmmm)

Definitely a lot of great games this week as so many teams are still in the hunt and unfortunately some very good teams will be left out while some very weak divisions are letting some teams into the playoffs that really don’t deserve it (ahem, Cardinals).  I would be really pissed if I were a Cowboys or Eagles fan left out as one of those two pretty good teams will be out while possibly an 8-8 Cardinal team will be playing a home game on Wildcard Weekend.  The Broncos/Chargers also have played pretty poorly for one of them to sneak in as the Dolphins or Patriots might be sitting at home next with with a better win loss record.  Not the end of the world but something that bothers me as we enter this final week of the regular season.  The good news is that for the most part the teams that deserve to be there are going to be and most of these deserving bubble teams control their own destiny this week as we have a great slate of games and playoff seed scenarios:

Oakland Raiders (+13) At Tampa Bay Buccaneers — The Bucs need the Cowboys to fall to the Eagles in order to get in and I expect them to beat the Raiders pretty handily however I see the Raiders covering this very large spread.  The Raiders are pretty bad but the Bucs haven’t been that dominating as of late and won’t cover this near 2 touchdown spread.

New York Giants (+6.5) At Minnesota Vikings –  I do like the Vikings to win here as they need this win to clinch the division and the Giants don’t need this win at all, however 6.5 points is way too much as I know Coughlin will play his starters much longer than he should as he did last year.  Only x-facter is if Adrian Peterson goes nuts as he sometimes does, and if that happens the Vikes will blow out the Giants late in the game as I’d expect Coughlin pulls some starters as they do have a bye next week in the first round of the playoffs.

Dallas Cowboys (+1.5) At Philadelphia Eagles — The last time these two teams played this season the Cowboys won 41-37 in one of the most exciting games of the season.  I expect the exact opposite in Philly as nasty weather and cold weather affect both teams and I see a defensive struggle where one clutch play will decide the outcome.  Another minus for those liking the chalk, if the Bucs win early which is very likely the Eagles may be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs before this afternoon game even begins…

Denver Broncos (+8) At San Diego Chargers — Even without Hochuli I see the Broncos easily covering here as I see this game being very high scoring but close til the end however I do see the Chargers winning and sneaking into the playoffs as the Broncos should have put this playoff race away weeks ago.  The Broncos now deserve to get left out as this game totally reminds everyone of Hochuli-gate.

And just in case you are wondering I am now 19-18-1 with my picks going into the final week so I’d definitely take my picks with a grain of salt but I’m feeling pretty lucky going into the playoffs as I turned around my losing streak mid-season and hope to close the season out on the plus side.

The NFL drama is definitely heating up as playoff teams are locking up their first round byes and vying for home field advantage, meanwhile the wildcard scenarios continue to make things more and more interesting as some very good teams will be left out this year it appears.  The Cowboys have the tough task of having to beat the Ravens this week and then the Eagles next week (after just defeating the #1 seed Giants last week).  The Romo-Witten-TO love triangle is making it even more interesting and I deeply hope they pull out the wildcard as then we can throw Jessica Simpson into the mix again and truly make it a drama on and off the field.  The Eagles also have a tough task of eliminating the Skins and beating the Cowboys and then hoping the Falcons or Bucs fail.  The Bucs will play the Chargers and Raiders, the Falcons still will face the Vikes and the Rams.

Probably the most exciting game this week however will be the Panthers V. Giants Sunday Night as the winner will have home field throughout the playoffs on top of their first round bye.  As much as I hate to say it I am done going against the Giants and am taking the chalk this Sunday Night (-3) as I think they lock in their bid at home in an exciting game against the Panthers.  I also like the Jags (+6) against the Colts this Thursday night and I like the Ravens (+4) on Saturday against the Cowboys.  I don’t think either team wins but I do think they cover as I expect close games in all three.

In the AFC things are a little more solidified but we do have the Steelers and Titans facing each other as the #1 seed in the AFC is still up in the air.  We also have the Pats, Jets, & Fins all tied to win their division and get a home game on Wildcard Weekend.  The Broncos, despite their lackluster record, is very close to knocking out the Chargers for good as they need to win or tie or need the Chargers to lose or tie in the next two weeks.  The Colts and Ravens look pretty solid in the last two wildcard slots but will have to watch for AFC East losers as they hope to land a wildcard slot as a consolation prize to losing their division.  Definitely many great games and scenarios to follow as most of our fantasy teams are finished.  I have one team left going for the championship this year and am riding on the backs of Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Turner this week.  I also have a 3rd place game that’s worth a decent amount of prize winnings so I have 2 fantasy teams active this week even though only one is still capable of bringing home the trophy.

Quarterback Rankings Week 16

1.  Drew Brees At Detroit Lions

2.  Peyton Manning At Jacksonville Jaguars

3.  Kurt Warner At New England Patriots

4.  Jay Cutler Vs. Buffalo Bills

5.  Donovan McNabb At Washington Redskins

6.  Matt Cassel Vs. Arizona Cardinals

7.  Matt Schaub At Oakland Raiders

8.  Philip Rivers At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9.  Aaron Rodgers At Chicago Bears

10.  Tony Romo Vs. Baltimore Ravens

11.  Tyler Thigpen Vs. Miami Dolphins

12.  Ben Roethlisberger At Tennessee Titans

Running Back Rankings Week 16

1.  Adrian Peterson Vs. Atlanta Falcons

2.  Brian Westbrook At Washington Redskins

3.  Marshawn Lynch At Denver Broncos

4.  Steve Slaton At Oakland Raiders

5.  Matt Forte Vs. Green Bay Packers

6.  Pierre Thomas At Detroit Lions

7.  Thomas Jones At Seattle Seahawks

8.  Maurice Jones Drew Vs. Indianapolis Colts

9.  DeAngelo Williams At New York Giants

10.  Steven Jackson Vs. San Francisco 49ers

11.  Michael Turner At Minnesota Vikings

12.  Ryan Grant At Chicago Bears

13.  Ladanian Tomlinson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

14.  Brandon Jacobs Vs. Carolina Panthers

15.  Kevin Smith Vs. New Orleans Saints

16.  Sammy Morris Vs. Arizona Cardinals

17.  Deshaun Foster At St. Louis Rams

18.  Clinton Portis Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

19.  Chris Johnson Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

20.  Willie Parker At Tennessee Titans

21.  Ronnie Brown At Kansas City Chiefs

22.  Cedric Benson At Cleveland Browns

23.  Larry Johnson Vs. Miami Dolphins

24.  Joseph Addai At Jacksonville Jaguars (questionable to play)

25.  Tashard Choice Vs. Baltimore Ravens

Wide Receiver Rankings Week 16

1. Andre Johnson At Oakland Raiders

2. Calvin Johnson Vs. New Orleans Saints

3. Larry Fitzgerald At New England Patriots

4. Roddy White At Minnesota Vikings

5. Anquan Boldin At New England Patriots

6. Randy Moss Vs. Arizona Cardinals

7. Antonio Bryant Vs. San Diego Chargers

8. Brandon Marshall Vs. Buffalo Bills

9. Marques Colston At Detroit Lions

10. Steve Smith At New York Giants

11. Dwayne Bowe Vs. Miami Dolphins

12. Reggie Wayne At Jacksonville Jaguars

13. Wes Welker Vs. Arizona Cardinals

14. Bernard Berrian Vs. Atlanta Falcons

15. Santonio Holmes At Tennessee Titans

16. Terrell Owens Vs. Baltimore Ravens

17. Lance Moore At Detroit Lions

18. Hines Ward At Tennessee Titans

19. Donald Driver At Chicago Bears

20. Kevin Walter At Oakland Raiders

21. Vincent Jackson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

22. Steve Breaston At New England Patriots

23. Eddie Royal Vs. Buffalo Bills

24. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson At Washington Redskins

25. TJ Houshmandzedah/Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson At Cleveland Browns

Tight End Rankings Week 16

1.  Tony Gonzalez Vs. Miami Dolphins

2.  Dallas Clark At Jacksonville Jaguars

3.  Antonio Gates At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

4.  Owen Daniels At Oakland Raiders

5.  Jason Witten Vs. Baltimore Ravens

6.  John Carlson Vs. New York Jets

7.  Chris Cooley Vs. Philadelphia Eagles

8.  Jeremy Shockey At Detroit Lions

9.  Tony Scheffler Vs. Buffalo Bills

10.  Greg Olsen Vs. Green Bay Packers

11.  Vernon Davis At St. Louis Rams

12.  Kevin Boss Vs. Carolina Panthers

Defense/Special Teams Week 16

1.  Pittsburgh Steelers At Tennessee Titans

2.  Philadelphia Eagles At Washington Redskins

3.  Dallas Cowboys Vs. Baltimore Ravens

4.  New York Giants Vs. Carolina Panthers

5.  Baltimore Ravens At Dallas Cowboys

6.  New York Jets At Seattle Seahawks

7.  Minnesota Vikings Vs. Atlanta Falcons

8.  Tennessee Titans Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

9.  New England Patriots Vs. Arizona Cardinals

10.  Chicago Bears Vs. Green Bay Packers

11.  Carolina Panthers At New York Giants

12.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. San Diego Chargers

Despite my terrible Lions pick 2 weeks ago I am happy my most recent picks have turned the momentum and now have me back to .500 (17-17) and I hope to get some steam going into the playoffs.  I’m also happy Westbrook has some momentum as he leads one of my playoff teams one step closer to a fantasy Superbowl.  All four of my fantasy teams made it to the playoffs this season but two have already made early exits thanks to very clutch bad performances from Antonio Gates and Marshawn Lynch.  Adrian Peterson also was a disappointment last week against the Lions but played well.  I was hoping for a new rushing record being broken but I can’t fault All Day for my losses as I felt he had a good game despite not finding the end zone.

So as we get another great Thursday Night match up I find I have no players that matter in either game but I do like the Saints (+3) against the Bears despite this dome team being forced to play in the Windy City.  Compared to last week the cold will be tame this week and the Bears are still without Vasher their best cover corner.  I like Bree’s chances against the Bears secondary and expect the Saints to get some revenge on the Bears who resoundingly knocked them out of the playoffs a few years back.  The Bears looked very good against the Jags but David Garrard was terrible and I expect much more from Drew this week in what I see to be a tough, hard-fought and close game but one where the Saints slimly defeat the Bears.

Quarterback Rankings Week 15

1. Peyton Manning Vs. Detroit Lions

2. Kurt Warner Vs. Minnesota Vikings

3. Drew Brees At Chicago Bears

4. Aaron Rodgers At Jacksonville Jaguars

5. Donovan McNabb Vs. Cleveland Browns

6. Jay Cutler At Carolina Panthers

7. Philip Rivers At Kansas City Chiefs

8. Matt Cassel At Oakland Raiders

9. Tony Romo Vs. New York Giants

10. Matt Schaub Vs. Tennessee Titans

11. Tyler Thigpen Vs. San Diego Chargers

12. Shaun Hill At Miami Dolphins

Running Back Rankings Week 15

1. Brian Westbrook Vs. Cleveland Browns

2. Adrian Peterson At Arizona Cardinals

3. DeAngelo Williams Vs. Denver Broncos

4. Chris Johnson At Houston Texans

5. Matt Forte Vs. New Orleans Saints

6. Ladanian Tomlinson At Kansas City Chiefs

7. Stephen Jackson Vs. Seattle Seahawks

8. Thomas Jones Vs. Buffalo Bills

9. Maurice Jones Drew Vs. Green Bay Packers

10. Michael Turner Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

11. Ryan Grant At Jacksonville Jaguars

12. Brandon Jacobs At Dallas Cowboys

13. Reggie Bush/Pierre Thomas At Chicago Bears

14. Steve Slaton Vs. Tennessee Titans

15. Marion Barber Vs. New York Giants (Questionable to play)

16. Joseph Addai Vs. Detroit Lions

17. Lendale White At Houston Texans

18. Jonathon Stewart Vs. Denver Broncos

19. Ronnie Brown Vs. San Francisco 49ers

20. Marshawn Lynch At New York Jets

21. Larry Johnson Vs. San Diego Chargers

22. Sammy Morris At Oakland Raiders

23. Derrick Ward At Dallas Cowboys

24. Kevin Smith At Indianapolis Colts

Wide Receiver Rankings Week 15

1. Steve Smith Vs. Denver Broncos

2. Larry Fitzgerald Vs. Minnesota Vikings

3. Anquan Boldin Vs. Minnesota Vikings

4. Brandon Marshall At Carolina Panthers

5. Andre Johnson Vs. Tennessee Titans

6. Calvin Johnson At Indianapolis Colts

7. Roddy White Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8. Greg Jennings At Jacksonville Jaguars

9. Dwayne Bowe Vs. San Diego Chargers

10. Terrell Owens Vs. New York Giants

11. Reggie Wayne Vs. Detroit Lions

12. Randy Moss At Oakland Raiders

13. Lee Evans At New York Jets

14. Marques Colston At Chicago Bears

15. Santana Moss At Cincinnati Bengals

16. Wes Welker At Oakland Raiders

17. Lance Moore At Chicago Bears

18. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson Vs. Cleveland Browns

19. Bernard Berrian At Arizona Cardinals

20. Marvin Harrison Vs. Detroit Lions

21. Eddie Royal At Carolina Panthers

22. Deion Branch At St. Louis Rams

23. Vincent Jackson At Kansas City Chiefs

24. Donald Driver At Jacksonville Jaguars

Tight End Rankings Week 15

1. Tony Gonzalez Vs. San Diego Chargers

2. Dallas Clark Vs. Detroit Lions

3. Antonio Gates At Kansas City Chiefs

4. Jason Witten Vs. New York Giants

5. John Carlson At St. Louis Rams

6. Tony Scheffler At Carolina Panthers

7. Dustin Keller Vs. Buffalo Bills

8. Heath Miller At Baltimore Ravens

9. Owen Daniels Vs. Tennessee Titans

10. Chris Cooley At Cincinnati Bengals

11. Donald Lee At Jacksonville Jaguars

12. Greg Olsen Vs. New Orleans Saints

Defense/Special Teams Week 15

1. Pittsburgh Steelers At Baltimore Ravens

2. Philadelphia Eagles Vs. Cleveland Browns

3. Indianapolis Colts Vs. Detroit Lions

4. New York Giants At Dallas Cowboys

5. Baltimore Ravens Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

6. Tennessee Titans At Houston Texans

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers At Atlanta Falcons

8. New York Jets Vs. Buffalo Bills

9. New England Patriots At Oakland Raiders

10. Green Bay Packers At Jacksonville Jaguars

11. Minnesota Vikings At Arizona Cardinals

12. Chicago Bears Vs. New Orleans Saints

With 3 Thanksgiving games this sets up to be a crazy and fun week as this is the last week of the fantasy season is also coming to a close and hopefully you still have a shot at the playoffs or even better a shot at a first round playoff bye.  With myself still slumping in my picks (15-16 overall this year) I’m going for the trifecta tomorrow as I figure its as good a way as any to try and break out of my slump and get some momentum for the playoffs.

As crazy as it may sound I like The Lions (+11) tomorrow in the early game as I think they play the hardest they have all year to avoid being embarrassed in front of the nation.  Its hard for me to predict the upset win but the Titans D hasn’t been as great as it was early in the year and their offense is flawed.  Cullepepper & Calvin Johnson seem to be liking their new connection and seem to be a nice duo if you are the fantasy owner of Johnson.

With the Cowboys I’m taking the chalk (-12.5) as I don’t think anyone will be able to stop TO and Romo as they try to duplicate last week’s performance.  Its a lot of points but the Seahawks haven’t been the most impressive this year and the Cowboys now need every win and point the rest of this year to ensure a wildcard slot into the playoffs.

I also like the Eagles (-3) for the tripleheader as its impossible for McNabb to screw up as bad as last week and I like the Eagles D to pressure Warner and slow down the Cards potent passing attack.  Westbrook is listed as questionable which means if I bench him he’ll run like he just took a hit of crack at the stadium parking lot and score 4 TD’s.  While I’m starting Westbrook I still like the Eagle’s chances in a high scoring, high flying, exciting game.

This week I’m focusing on tonight’s game (Jets/Pats) and also the Broncos/Falcons game as the machine let me down last week picking the Browns so I am going back to my own instincts to see if my bad luck has run out.  With tonight’s game I like the Patriots -3 as Matt Cassel has slowly become a better quarterback every week and most importantly does test the opposing D downfield which is a must for the Pats offense to work.  Yes Cassel can’t hit Moss the way Brady did but they are trying and it opens up the rest of the field for the offense when the D has to respect the deep ball and Moss.  When the Pats weren’t throwing it deep in the 1st half of the season they might as well have not been playing with Moss out there.  And without Brady or Moss that offense is worse than mediocre.  I’m also counting on the hatefest between Belichick and the Mangenius for the Pats to be very ready this game and also wanting to run up the score if possible.  While the Jets D is not terrible, its definitely not very good so even with a famous favre back door cover attempt I like my chances tonight.

With the Falcons/Broncos I am taking the Over 51, not just because I like both offenses, but because I love both of these defenses (especially in consideration of an over).  The Broncos “D” allows 27.9 points per game and gives up nearly 390 yards per game putting them in the lowest 3 in the NFL.  Add in that Champ Bailey still has a pulled groin and very likely will miss another game and I see another bottom 3 performance coming from them.  The Falcons, while better, are not that much better as they average giving up just under 20 points a game and rank 23rd in the league in yards given up per game.  The Falcons are at home which is a big plus for them as they play much better at home however Jay Cutler is back on fire like he was at the beginning of the year and on top of that his top 3 running backs are out with injury.  Last game the fullback and Mike Shanahan himself took turns playing running back as Cutler was forced to throw for over 400 yards for them to eake out a win in that defensive battle in Cleveland (34-30).  While I don’t expect this game to be that high scoring I like the over here as I’m sure the Broncos D won’t let me down and my fate will rely on Cutler’s ability to perform like last week to cover that pretty high over.  Either way should be an exciting game and an exciting week as the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner and the real playoffs right after that.

Quarterback Rankings Week 11

1. Jay Cutler At Atlanta Falcons

2. Peyton Manning Vs. Houston Texans

3. Drew Brees At Kansas City Chiefs

4. Kurt Warner At Seattle Seahawks

5. Tony Romo At Washington Redskins

6. Jake Delhomme Vs. Detroit Lions

7. Matt Ryan Vs. Denver Broncos

8. Donovan McNabb At Cincinnati Bengals

9. Chad Pennington Vs. Oakland Raiders

10. Tyler Thigpen Vs. New Orleans Saints

11. Brett Favre At New England Patriots

12. Philip Rivers At Pittsburgh Steelers

It feels wrong to rank a Jay Cutler above a Peyton Manning but considering Cutler has no running backs (3 top backs out with injury) and very possibly no Champ Bailey again (making a bad defense even worse) I see more upside in Cutler this week despite both of them playing pretty light defenses.  Tony Romo is definitely the wildcard to watch this week though as I suspect he could have played 4 weeks ago but the Cowboys wanted to play it safe. It looks like Romo still will not be 100% but still a good play I’d assume until we see different.  It would not shock me at all to see Romo throw for 300+ and a few scores but I’d like to see how he throws before ranking him any higher.

Running Back Rankings Week 11

1. Brian Westbrook At Cincinnati Bengals

2. Frank Gore Vs. St. Louis Rams

3. Michael Turner Vs. Denver Broncos

4. Marion Barber Ar Washington Redskins

5. Marshawn Lynch Vs. Cleveland Browns

6. Adrian Peterson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

7. Chris Johnson At Jacksonville Jaguars

8. Ladanian Tomlinson At Pittsburgh Steelers

9. Matt Forte At Green Bay Packers

10. Steve Slaton At Indianapolis Colts

11. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart Vs. Detroit Lions

12. Ronnie Brown Vs. Oakland Raiders

13. Joseph Addai Vs. Houston Texans

14. Larry Johnson Vs. New Orleans Saints

15. Reggie Bush/Deuce McAlister At Kansas City Chiefs

16. Clinton Portis Vs. Dallas Cowboys

17. Willie Parker Vs. San Diego Chargers

18. Tim Hightower At Seattle Seahawks

19. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Baltimore Ravens

20. Jamal Lewis At Buffalo Bills

21. Maurice Jones-Drew Vs. Tennessee Titans

22. Ryan Grant Vs. Chicago Bears

23. Thomas Jones At New England Patriots

24. Lendale White At Jacksonville Jaguars

Some fantasy experts differ with me this week but I still favor the reliable staple running back against a terrible match than a questionable back against an easier match up. Yes I’m sure Adrian Peterson has a tougher time against the Bucs than most of his opponents but he can still have a good to great game. I’d much rather lose starting Peterson than reaching on a Slaton or a Hightower who both could have great games but also could have very quiet games as they somewhat frequently do.  It may be a mistake but I’m starting Peterson over McGahee & Jonathon Stewart this week on one of my teams as I think Peterson is much more likely even against the Bucs to have a better game than my 2 reserve backs.

Wide Receiver Rankings Week 11

1. Brandon Marshall At Atlanta Falcons

2. Steve Smith Vs. Detroit Lions

3. Reggie Wayne Vs. Houston Texans

4. Anquan Boldin At Seattle Seahawks

5. Larry Fitzgerald At. Seattle Seahawks

6. Roddy White Vs. Denver Broncos

7. Terrell Owens At Washington Redskins

8. Santana Moss Vs. Dallas Cowboys

9. Marques Colston At Kansas City Chiefs

10. Cavin Johnson At Carolina Panthers

11. Dwayne Bowe Vs. New Orleans Saints

12. Randy Moss Vs. New York Jets

13. Greg Jennings Vs. Chicago Bears

14. Eddie Royal At Atlanta Falcons

15. Hines Ward Vs. San Diego Chargers

16. Lee Evans Vs. Cleveland Browns

17. Plaxico Burress Vs. Baltimore Ravens

18. Ted Ginn Jr. Vs. Oakland Raiders

19. Roy Williams At Washington Redskins

20. Wes Welker Vs. New York Jets

21. Laveranues Coles At New England Patriots

22. Bernard Berrian At Tampa Bay Buccaneers

23. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson

24. Marvin Harrison Wide Receivers Vs. Houston Texans

Not much commentary for me on here as I have had trouble with my receiver corps all year on my teams (meaning the WR’s on my bench have the propensity for the big game).

If Kyle Orton does play I upgrade the Bears D (much easier to play good D when you control the time of possession) and downgrade the Packer’s D as Orton has shown us he’s the real deal this year.  If Orton can’t go (which is what I expect as he was due to miss a month according to most reports last week) and Turnoverasaurus Rex is starting again I think the Pack D is in for a great fantasy game and 50/50 for another pick six gift from Rex.

How about those Lions?  Amazingly the Failsafe Machine once again proved to be worth much more than I paid for it as it predicted a Lions cover and has me working out of my prior slump (I’m 15-13 now for the year).  For a few minutes I thought the Lions might even win that game which again shows me why the Machine is so successful as it has no idea how terrible the Lions are and I think only Lion fans in denial would ever touch that 12.5 point spread.  So with the Machine starting out this year so successful I’m going with the machine again to choose the play for tonight’s game of the Browns & Broncos.  I’m so glad to have Thursday Night Football as not only is it another day of the week we can watch football but it also means the bye weeks are nearing an end and the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner only to be followed by the NFL playoffs.  So without any further to do I will check with the machine for tonights cover and it is….Heads, the Browns at -3.  They are at home so it is possible but will most likely hinge on Brady Quinn’s ability to outscore Jay Cutler’s crew.  Should be an interesting game if you like offense tonight as these 2 D’s have to be in the bottom 5 making all these offensive fantasy players good starts this week although again Brady Quinn has to factor heavily into your choices.  He’s definitely the wild card of this game as he makes his NFL debut tonight.

The following teams are on bye this week: Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins

Quarterback Rankings Week 10

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1. Drew Brees At Atlanta Falcons

2. Kurt Warner Vs. San Francisco 49ers

3. Jay Cutler At Cleveland Browns

4. Peyton Manning At Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Aaron Rodgers At Minnesota Vikings

6. Philip Rivers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

7. Jake Delhomme At Oakland Raiders

8. Brett Favre Vs. St. Louis Rams

9. Donovan McNabb Vs. New York Giants

10. Eli Manning At Philadelphia Eagles

11. Chad Pennington Vs. Seattle Seahawks

12. Matt Ryan Vs. New Orleans Saints

13. Brady Quinn Vs. Denver Broncos

If you are a gambler I love Brady Quinn Thursday night as the Browns have some talent and the Broncos D is terrible and NO Champ Bailey again (injury). I am definitely a minority in this pick but I like his upside unless I have a stud QB starting this week. Brees, Warner, & Cutler have great match ups and should perform big. After that I see some of those top 12 struggling due to good defensive play but I do however predict a big game from Favre this week. Instinstively I feel like he is due for a big game and the Rams D has been better but is still not very good under Haslett.

Running Back Rankings Week 10

1. Ladanian Tomlinson Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Brian Westbrook Vs. New York Giants

3. Adrian Peterson Vs. Green Bay Packers

4. Frank Gore At Arizona Cardinals

5. Michael Turner Vs. New Orleans Saints

6. Willie Parker Vs. Indianapolis Colts

7. Ronnie Brown Vs. Seattle Seahawks

8. Chris Johnson At Chicago Bears

9. Matt Forte Vs. Tennessee Titans

10. Brandon Jacobs At Philadelphia Eagles

11. Maurice Jones-Drew At Detroit Lions

12. Thomas Jones Vs. St Louis Rams

13. Tim Hightower Vs. San Francisco 49ers

14. Jamal Lewis Vs. Denver Broncos

15. Marshawn Lynch At New England Patriots

16. Ray Rice/McClain/McGahee At Houston Texans

17. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart At Oakland Raiders

18. Lendale White At Chicago Bears

19. Joseph Addai At Pittsburgh Steelers

20. Ryan Grant Ar Minnesota Vikings

21. Steve Slaton Vs. Baltimore Ravens

22. Kevin Faulk/B. Green-Ellis Vs. Buffalo Bills

23. Ryan Torain At Cleveland Browns

24. Jamaal Charles At San Diego Chargers

This is a huge week for LT owners as they hope his 170 yards and a score against the Saints was not a fluke and he is truly getting healthy now. After the bye he should be even more healthy and everyone is saying he looks great now that his toe injury seems to be nearly 100% gone. Throw in the fact the Chiefs are the worst in the NFL against the run giving up an average of 180+ rush yards a game and LT owners have to be excited. If LT truly is back he should have a devastating fantasy game.

Wide Receiver Rankings Week 10

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1. Steve Smith At Oakland Raiders

2. Brandon Marshall At Cleveland Browns

3. Larry Fitzgerald Vs. San Francisco 49ers

4. Andre Johnson Vs. Baltimore Ravens

5. Anquan Boldin Vs. San Francisco 49ers

6. Greg Jennings At Minnesota Vikings

7. Braylon Edwards Vs. Denver Broncos

8. Calvin Johnson Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

9. Reggie Wayne At Pittsburgh Steelers

10. Lee Evans At New England Patriots

11. Roddy White Vs. New Orleans Saints

12. Bernard Berrian Vs. Green Bay Packers

13. Randy Moss Vs. Buffalo Bills

14. Jerricho Cotchery Vs. St. Louis Rams

15. Plaxico Burress At Philadelphia Eagles

16. Eddie Royal At Cleveland Browns

17. Laveranues Coles Vs. St. Louis Rams

18. Donald Driver At Minnesota Vikings

19. Marques Colston At Atlanta Falcons

20. Vincent Jackson Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

21. Derrick Mason At Houston Texans

22. Matt Jones At Detroit Lions

23. Greg Camarillo Vs. Seattle Seahawks

24. Hines Ward/Santonio Holmes Vs. Indianapolis Colts

25. Donnie Avery/Torry Holt At New York Jets

Tight End Rankings Week 10

1. Antonio Gates Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

2. Kellen Winslow Vs. Denver Broncos

3. Tony Gonzalez At San Diego Chargers

4. Dallas Clark At Pittsburgh Steelers

5. Owen Daniels Vs. Baltimore Ravens

6. Visanthe Shiancoe Vs. Green Bay Packers

7. Anthony Fasano Vs. Seattle Seahawks

8. Kevin Boss At Philadelphia Eagles

9. Bo Scaife At Chicago Bears

10. Jeremy Shockey At Atlanta Falcons

11. LJ Smith Vs. New York Giants

12. John Carlson At Miami Dolphins

Gates should have benefited from his bye week and should be more healed from his nagging injuries that have slowed him this year. Despite his injuries Gates has 5 touchdowns this year but very lackluster yardage numbers from what we are used to from him. I also expect good games from Winslow, Gonzo, & Clark but I am not crazy about the rest of the batch as many have bad match ups and many don’t have the starting QB throwing to them this week.

Defense/Special Teams Week 10

1. Carolina Panthers At Oakland Raiders

2. Tennessee Titans At Chicago Bears

3. Baltimore Ravens At Houston Texans

4. Jacksonville Jaguars At Detroit Lions

5. Chicago Bears Vs. Tennessee Titans

6. Miami Dolphins Vs. Seattle Seahawks

7. New York Giants At Philadelphia Eagles

8. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Indianapolis Colts

9. San Diego Chargers Vs. Kansas City Chiefs

10. New England Patriots Vs. Buffalo Bills

11. Philadelphia Eagles Vs. New York Giants

12. Minnesota Vikings Vs. Green Bay Packers

If Rex Grossman starts for the Bears (I’ve heard conflicting reports on Orton) In love the Titans defense here as Grossman doesn’t have the nickname Turnoverasaurus Rex for nothing. Grossman played in 8 games in 2007 and had 7 interceptions & 6 fumbles. In 2006 when he was “playing well” he had a QB rating of 73.8 and 20 interceptions and 8 fumbles in 16 games. I can’t find the stats but I would not be surprised if Grossman is high in the history books when it comes to pick sixes as well as I remember seeing a lot of them over the years. The Titans might have a great day if Rex plays and is not on his game.

Of course if Orton starts I see a totally different game (although I’d still start the Titans in most cases anyway).