This week I’m focusing on tonight’s game (Jets/Pats) and also the Broncos/Falcons game as the machine let me down last week picking the Browns so I am going back to my own instincts to see if my bad luck has run out. With tonight’s game I like the Patriots -3 as Matt Cassel has slowly become a better quarterback every week and most importantly does test the opposing D downfield which is a must for the Pats offense to work. Yes Cassel can’t hit Moss the way Brady did but they are trying and it opens up the rest of the field for the offense when the D has to respect the deep ball and Moss. When the Pats weren’t throwing it deep in the 1st half of the season they might as well have not been playing with Moss out there. And without Brady or Moss that offense is worse than mediocre. I’m also counting on the hatefest between Belichick and the Mangenius for the Pats to be very ready this game and also wanting to run up the score if possible. While the Jets D is not terrible, its definitely not very good so even with a famous favre back door cover attempt I like my chances tonight.
With the Falcons/Broncos I am taking the Over 51, not just because I like both offenses, but because I love both of these defenses (especially in consideration of an over). The Broncos “D” allows 27.9 points per game and gives up nearly 390 yards per game putting them in the lowest 3 in the NFL. Add in that Champ Bailey still has a pulled groin and very likely will miss another game and I see another bottom 3 performance coming from them. The Falcons, while better, are not that much better as they average giving up just under 20 points a game and rank 23rd in the league in yards given up per game. The Falcons are at home which is a big plus for them as they play much better at home however Jay Cutler is back on fire like he was at the beginning of the year and on top of that his top 3 running backs are out with injury. Last game the fullback and Mike Shanahan himself took turns playing running back as Cutler was forced to throw for over 400 yards for them to eake out a win in that defensive battle in Cleveland (34-30). While I don’t expect this game to be that high scoring I like the over here as I’m sure the Broncos D won’t let me down and my fate will rely on Cutler’s ability to perform like last week to cover that pretty high over. Either way should be an exciting game and an exciting week as the fantasy playoffs are right around the corner and the real playoffs right after that.
Quarterback Rankings Week 11
1. Jay Cutler At Atlanta Falcons
2. Peyton Manning Vs. Houston Texans
3. Drew Brees At Kansas City Chiefs
4. Kurt Warner At Seattle Seahawks
5. Tony Romo At Washington Redskins
6. Jake Delhomme Vs. Detroit Lions
7. Matt Ryan Vs. Denver Broncos
8. Donovan McNabb At Cincinnati Bengals
9. Chad Pennington Vs. Oakland Raiders
10. Tyler Thigpen Vs. New Orleans Saints
11. Brett Favre At New England Patriots
12. Philip Rivers At Pittsburgh Steelers
It feels wrong to rank a Jay Cutler above a Peyton Manning but considering Cutler has no running backs (3 top backs out with injury) and very possibly no Champ Bailey again (making a bad defense even worse) I see more upside in Cutler this week despite both of them playing pretty light defenses. Tony Romo is definitely the wildcard to watch this week though as I suspect he could have played 4 weeks ago but the Cowboys wanted to play it safe. It looks like Romo still will not be 100% but still a good play I’d assume until we see different. It would not shock me at all to see Romo throw for 300+ and a few scores but I’d like to see how he throws before ranking him any higher.
Running Back Rankings Week 11
1. Brian Westbrook At Cincinnati Bengals
2. Frank Gore Vs. St. Louis Rams
3. Michael Turner Vs. Denver Broncos
4. Marion Barber Ar Washington Redskins
5. Marshawn Lynch Vs. Cleveland Browns
6. Adrian Peterson At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Chris Johnson At Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Ladanian Tomlinson At Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Matt Forte At Green Bay Packers
10. Steve Slaton At Indianapolis Colts
11. DeAngelo Williams/Jonathon Stewart Vs. Detroit Lions
12. Ronnie Brown Vs. Oakland Raiders
13. Joseph Addai Vs. Houston Texans
14. Larry Johnson Vs. New Orleans Saints
15. Reggie Bush/Deuce McAlister At Kansas City Chiefs
16. Clinton Portis Vs. Dallas Cowboys
17. Willie Parker Vs. San Diego Chargers
18. Tim Hightower At Seattle Seahawks
19. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Baltimore Ravens
20. Jamal Lewis At Buffalo Bills
21. Maurice Jones-Drew Vs. Tennessee Titans
22. Ryan Grant Vs. Chicago Bears
23. Thomas Jones At New England Patriots
24. Lendale White At Jacksonville Jaguars
Some fantasy experts differ with me this week but I still favor the reliable staple running back against a terrible match than a questionable back against an easier match up. Yes I’m sure Adrian Peterson has a tougher time against the Bucs than most of his opponents but he can still have a good to great game. I’d much rather lose starting Peterson than reaching on a Slaton or a Hightower who both could have great games but also could have very quiet games as they somewhat frequently do. It may be a mistake but I’m starting Peterson over McGahee & Jonathon Stewart this week on one of my teams as I think Peterson is much more likely even against the Bucs to have a better game than my 2 reserve backs.
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 11
1. Brandon Marshall At Atlanta Falcons
2. Steve Smith Vs. Detroit Lions
3. Reggie Wayne Vs. Houston Texans
4. Anquan Boldin At Seattle Seahawks
5. Larry Fitzgerald At. Seattle Seahawks
6. Roddy White Vs. Denver Broncos
7. Terrell Owens At Washington Redskins
8. Santana Moss Vs. Dallas Cowboys
9. Marques Colston At Kansas City Chiefs
10. Cavin Johnson At Carolina Panthers
11. Dwayne Bowe Vs. New Orleans Saints
12. Randy Moss Vs. New York Jets
13. Greg Jennings Vs. Chicago Bears
14. Eddie Royal At Atlanta Falcons
15. Hines Ward Vs. San Diego Chargers
16. Lee Evans Vs. Cleveland Browns
17. Plaxico Burress Vs. Baltimore Ravens
18. Ted Ginn Jr. Vs. Oakland Raiders
19. Roy Williams At Washington Redskins
20. Wes Welker Vs. New York Jets
21. Laveranues Coles At New England Patriots
22. Bernard Berrian At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
23. DeSean “Premature Celebration” Jackson
24. Marvin Harrison Wide Receivers Vs. Houston Texans
Not much commentary for me on here as I have had trouble with my receiver corps all year on my teams (meaning the WR’s on my bench have the propensity for the big game).
Tight End Rankings Week 11
1. Antonio Gates At Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Tony Gonzalez Vs. New Orleans Saints
3. Jason Witten At Washington Redskins
4. Kellen Winslow At Buffalo Bills
5. Dallas Clark Vs. Houston Texans
6. Tony Scheffler At Atlanta Falcons
7. Chris Cooley Vs. Dallas Cowboys
8. Owen Daniels At Indianapolis Colts
9. Dustin Keller At New England Patriots
10. Bo Scaife At Jacksonville Jaguars
11. Visanthe Shiancoe At Tampa Bay Buccaneers
12. Anthony Fasano Vs. Oakland Raiders
It will be interesting to see if Witt’s stats come back now that it looks like Tony Romo is back in the starting lineup though not 100%. I expect a decent game from Witt but there are many good match ups for some solid tight ends this week as we have finally finished wading through the bye weeks where the tight end position always seemed the toughest to fill with a quality spot starter during a bye. I am very glad the bye weeks are finished.
Defense/Special Teams Week 11
1. Carolina Panthers Vs. Detroit Lions
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Minnesota Vikings
3. Miami Dolphins Vs. Oakland Raiders
4. Tennessee Titans At Jacksonville Jaguars
5. Philadelphia Eagles At Cincinnati Bengals
6. New York Giants Vs. Baltimore Ravens
7. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. San Diego Chargers
8. Green Bay Packers Vs. Chicago Bears
9. New York Giants Vs. Baltimore Ravens
10. New England Patriots Vs. New York Jets
11. Baltimore Ravens At New York Giants
12. Chicago Bears At Green Bay Packers.
If Kyle Orton does play I upgrade the Bears D (much easier to play good D when you control the time of possession) and downgrade the Packer’s D as Orton has shown us he’s the real deal this year. If Orton can’t go (which is what I expect as he was due to miss a month according to most reports last week) and Turnoverasaurus Rex is starting again I think the Pack D is in for a great fantasy game and 50/50 for another pick six gift from Rex.