Its always tough week 1 as 99% of what we saw during the long preseason means virtually nothing. While Ray Rice may have looked like the best sleeper in the world this preseason for all we know McGahee is about to have a career year and keep Rice locked up on the bench. While there is potential for some great match ups this weekend besides the Cowboys/Browns game, I expect many surprises.
Any owners of Romo, Witten, TO, Barber, etc. should be salivating at a chance at the Browns who gave up 30+ points 7 times last year to their opponents (remember week 2 last season they gave up 45 points…and still won 51-45 over the Bengals). The Browns this off season did not do much at all to upgrade their defense. In fact, they traded one of their best cover corners away this off season (Leigh Bodden). They also burned their top draft picks before the draft so their top draft pick is a 4th round linebacker. No help from the draft to this D. Without Bodden, I see this unit as even worse than last year. Add in the way the heartbreaking way the Cowboys season ended last season inthe playoffs (even TO was in tears remember?) and I think the Browns are in some trouble and your fantasy starters are due for a big premiere. I’m very curious to see how Barber performs without Julius Jones but all signs point to him starting will equal even more fantasy points than before.
Besides that game (Cowboys -5.5) I also think Favre puts a hurting on the rebuilding Miami Dolphins (Jets -3 Favre has a lot to prove), I think the Skins (+4) surprise the now weakened Giants, & the Colts (-9.5) cover vs. the Bears as I see Manning struggling early but easily winning and covering as 10 points really isn’t that much when the other team can only score if you kick off to them.
Quarterback Rankings — Week 1
1. Tom Brady Vs. Kansas City Chiefs — Hasn’t played all preseason but too good last year to downgrade his ranking.
2. Tony Romo At Cleveland Browns – Weak defense and an offense that should be ready to score some points.
3. Peyton Manning Vs. Chicago Bears — Bears defense might hurt Manning’s fantasy points and Manning has not played all preseason. Timing may be off to start the season with Peyton and his receivers.
4. Drew Brees Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Decent defense but Saints have a high octane offense.
5. Brett Favre At Miami Dolphins — A weak defense and a lot of people to prove wrong (including many former fans from GB). I think Favre comes out slinging.
6. Ben Roethlisberger Vs. Houston Texans — Big Ben should pick up where he left off from last year’s big fantasy season.
7. Carson Palmer At Baltimore Ravens — The Ravens D doesn’t concern me as much as the broken nose and the broken moral around the circus that is the Bengals offense. If Chad Ocho Cinco (its his official name now) plays hard and well Palmer should have some nice stats.
8. Jay Cutler At Oakland Raiders – Cutler is minus his favorite target (Marshall suspended only 1 game now) and the Raiders secondary is greatly improved, however it is still the Raiders.
9. Donovan McNabb Vs. St. Louis Rams — McNabb is healthy and should perform if he can stay healthy.
10. Matt Hasselbeck At Buffalo Bills – A bad back, depleted receivers and decent defense against him but Hasselbeck will have a decent game.
11. Kurt Warner At San Francisco 49ers — Provided Whisenhunt doesn’t go crazy subbing QB’s ion and out, Warner has the potential for big fantasy numbers.
12. Eli Manning Vs. Washington Redskins — I like the Skins D but Eli has a ring, a new wife, and seemingly a lot of new confidence and poise. I expect him to emerge as a solid fantasy starter this year.
Others worth a good look: Jon Kitna At Atlanta Falcons (lots of skill at receiver and depleted DB corps in ATL), Derek Anderson Vs. Dallas Cowboys (should have a tough day but should be throwing the ball a lot), Marc Bulger At Philadelphia Eagles (an improved O line and no injuries, yet however not the greatest on natural grass), Jason Campbell At New York Giants (some injuries to the Giants D makes them weaker), Chad Pennington Vs. New York Jets (I see them throwing a lot Sunday if they fall behind as much as I expect them to).
Running Back Week 1 Rankings
1. Ladanian Tomlinson Vs. Carolina Panthers — Impossible to not start LT no matter who he plays.
2. Brian Westbrook Vs. St Louis Rams — Westbrook and McNabb are both healthy. I expect a lot of touches for Westbrook Sunday.
3. Adrian Peterson Vs. Green Bay Packers — only 23 carries (in 2 games) versus this good Packer run defense last year but 157 yards gained. I look for Peterson to continue this trend and score a TD as well.
4. Frank Gore Vs. Arizona Cardinals — Gore performs well despite a new QB and a weak defense keying in on him all game.
5. Marion Barber III At Cleveland Browns — Weak defense and no Julius Jones in the way. Barber has potential for a huge game.
6. Steven Jackson At Philadelphia Eagles — Improved O line and healthy offense gives Jackson no excuses to not perform.
7. Clinton Portis At New York Giants — 2 solid games last year versus this Giants defense who have lost some starters. Portis should have a good game.
8. Joseph Addai Vs. Chicago Bears — I expect a decent game but a tough Bears run defense limits his fantasy scoring.
9. Willis McGahee Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — If he plays (questionable to play) he will be the most effective weapon the Ravens have on offense.
10. Brandon Jacobs Vs. Washington Redskins — Shredded the Skins D for 130 yards last time they played.
11. Darren McFadden Vs. Denver Broncos — I see Raiders passing attack struggling but their ground game will impress.
12. Maurice Jones Drew At Tennessee Titans – (probable to play) will split carries with Fred Taylor but gets most goal line chances, decent fantasy potential this game.
13. Marshawn Lynch Vs. Seattle Seahawks – Tough run defense but Lynch should get a lot of touches and opportunities.
14. Larry Johnson At New England Patriots — Tough team to debut against in this year which he hopes to return as a mainstream fantasy starter.
15. Earnest Graham At New Orleans Saints — Not my fave fantasy unit (The Bucs offense) but Graham should score some fantasy points this game.
16. Ryan Grant Vs. Minnesota Vikings — A lot of question marks this preseason and a tough run D but 5.1 yards per carry average last season (nearly 1,000 yards in half a season of play) makes it tough to bench him.
17. Lawrence Maroney Vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Underperforms every year but has the skill and potential to become a prolific fantasy scorer
18. Reggie Bush Vs. Tampa Bay Bucs (Probable to play) –A very dissappointing sophmore year in the NFL but I expect a huge year from Bush if he can stay healthy.
Others worth a good look: Jamal Lewis Vs. Dallas Cowboys (Probable to play), Edgerrin James At San Francisco 49ers, Michael Turner Vs. Detroit Lions, Willie Parker Vs. Houston Texans, Thomas Jones at Miami Dolphins, Lendale White Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Selvin Young At Oakland Raiders
Wide Receiver Rankings Week 1
1. Terrell Owens At Cleveland Browns — A porous defense and an offensive unit with no excuses (except maybe Jessica) to not score a ton of points this year.
2. Randy Moss Vs Kansas City Chiefs – Week one last season Moss shocked the world with 9 receptions, 183 yards and one touchdown. I expect he’ll come out hot again this year after fizzling the latter part of the season and in the playoffs.
3. Reggie Wayne Vs. Chicago Bears — A tough secondary but Peyton’s #1 target now.
4. Larry Fitzgerald At San Francisco 49ers — Kurt Warner and Fitzgerald had some nice games last season and the Niners D should make it easy to come out of the gates hot.
5. TJ Houshmanzedah At Baltimore Ravens — Questionable running attack and an injured but playing Ocho Cinco might equal a great night for TJ. (Probable to play)
6. Braylon Edwards Vs. Dallas Cowboys — Should pick up where he left off last season with Derek Anderson looking like he’s 100% (concussion this preseason) (probable to play)
7. Marques Colston Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 3rd year in the NFL (when most receivers agree they are finally fully up to the raw speed of the NFL) and a contract year. Colston should be ready to play. (Probable to play)
8. Santonio Holmes Vs. Houston Texans — Holmes has quickly and surprisingly passed Ward to become Big Ben’s #1 target.
9. Plaxico Burress Vs. Washington Redskins – He and Eli should continue to build on their chemistry from last year. Plaxico also seems to play better when the spotlight is on him as it will be on Thursday Night Football to open the NFL season. (Probable to play)
10. Jerricho Cotchery At Miami Dolphins — Great potential for a big game when you have #4 throwing the ball to you.
11. Roy Williams At Atlanta Falcons — With Dante Hall gone the Falcons secondary looks pretty weak.
12. Calvin Johnson At Atlanta Falcons — Same as above
13. Chad Ocho Cinco At Baltimore Ravens — Yes the name change is official but so is the torn labrum and many bruised feelings in Cinci. Potential for the big game but tough to rank high with all these factors out there.
14. Andre Johnson At Pittsburgh Steelers — A challening secondary but a healthy Schaub can mean some big plays like last season when both were healthy.
15. Anquan Boldin At San Francisco 49ers — I hate Boldin’s attitude but I love the match up and Kurt Warner throwing him the ball.
16. Wes Welker Vs. Kansas City Chiefs — I almost feel bad for the Chiefs as I think the Pats take out the Super Bowl loss frustrations on them and run up the score.
17. Torry Holt At Philadelphia Eagles — He’s a year older but he’s always been very consistent. Bulger is healthy so he should have some good opportunities.
18. Hines Ward Vs. Houston Texans — I expect Ward to improve upon last yearnow that Holmes will attract some more attention in coverage.
19. Dwayne Bowe At New England Patriots — If only he had a quarterback to throw to him.
20. Marvin Harrison Vs. Chicago Bears — If his knee is healthy Harrison could be a nice surprise this year. I’m eager to see him play Sunday night.
21. Greg Jennings Vs. Minnesota Vikings –Tough to start him without seeing more from Aaron Rodgers.
22. Chris Chambers Vs. Carolina Panthers — With Gates hampered by an injury Chambers might get more attention from Rivers.
23. Joey Galloway At New Orleans Saints — The Saints secondary seems to enjoy giving up long touchdowns. Galloway is old but fast and still a big play receiver.
24. Patrick Crayton At Cleveland Browns — Crayton will have to compete with Witten and TO for throws but the Cleveland defense has been generous in the past to receivers.
25. Laveranues Coles At Miami Dolphins — Word is that Coles is unhappy about Pennington being traded away but a touchdown pass from Favre could help the healing process being I would think.
Tight Ends Week 1 Rankings
1. Jason Witten At Cleveland Browns — The Browns secondary is even weaker this year as they have traded away cover corner Leigh Bodden. They can only hope their own offense can keep up this year. Witten should accrue a ton of catches.
2. Antonio Gates Vs. Carolina Panthers — A toe injury hampers him but he’s still a force if he can play. (Probable to play)
3. Dallas Clark Vs. Chicago Bears — I expect Manning to go the the reliable tight end early and often as he tries to get his regular season rythym started.
4. Kellen Winslow Vs. Dallas Cowboys — Potential to become a big time TE but not very consistant.
5. Heath Miller Vs. Houston Texans — Good chance Miller gets some attention from Big Ben and maybe even scores a TD.
6. Chris Cooley At New York Giants — Cooley will continue this year to be Campbell’s safety net.
7. Jeremy Shockey Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — A big dissappointment in the big apple, a big new chance in the big easy. With Brees throwing the ball and the Saints high octane offensive system Shockey has no excuse to fail.
8. Tony Gonzalez At New England Patriots — The same problem Bowe runs into, a reliable quarterback to throw to him.
9. Todd Heap Vs. Cincinnati Bengals — If Heap is healthy he has a history of performing against the Bengals. Joe Flacco may rely on him heavily oas well in his first NFL start, if he is healthy…
10. Vernon Davis Vs. Arizona Cardinals — A ton of talent perhaps a new QB (JT O’Sullivan) might make something happen.
11. Owen Daniels At Pittsburgh Steelers — Became a consistant TE last season.
12. Dustin Keller At Miami Dolphins — With Favre in town Keller could shine.
Defense/Special Teams Week 1 Rankings
1. New England Patriots Vs Kansas City Chiefs — Brodie Croyle
2. Chicago Bears At Indianapolis Colts — Manning might shred the D but Hester can hurt them right back. The Colts might even take a big enough lead that they’ll foolishly kick to him.
3. Minnesota Vikings At Green Bay Packers — Rodgers is very unproven and the Vikings defense is very opportunistic.
4. Indianapolis Colts Vs. Chicago Bears — Orton manages the game better than Turnoverasaurus Rex however the Bears offense is terrible.
5. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs. Houston Texans — I like Schaub running the Texans offense but they still have a lot to improve upon.
6. Jacksonville Jaguars At Tennessee Titans — Titans might have a good ground game but their passing attack is very flawed.
Other D’s worth a good look: San Diego Chargers Vs. Carolina Panthers (minus Steve Smith), Detroit Lions At Atlanta Falcons, Seattle Seahawks At Buffalo BIlls, Philadelphia Eagles Vs. St Louis Rams, Dallas Cowboys At Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans At Jacksonville Jaguars
If you are wondering why I never rank kickers I think those match ups are pretty obvious, and beyond that, its much better to be lucky than skilled at choosing which kicker to start or draft. Who predicted Rob Bironas’s crazy game last season? Its obviously better to have a kicker on a team with a good offense but beyond that you are almost better off just guessing who is going to have that record breaking type game.